Thursday, March 13, 2008

Mississippi Republican Votes

I've been puzzled by the Mississippi exit polls which indicate that Republicans made up 13% of all the votes in the Democratic primary there, and 76% of them voted for Senator Clinton.  This is a sharp reversal from most previous states, where Senator Obama captured the majority of Republican voters.  

Andrew Romano at Newsweek made this post trying to explain the vote.  It shows that the Republican voters who voted for Senator Clinton tended to like her less then they liked Senator McCain - but they disliked Senator Obama even more.  Of all Clinton Republican voters in Mississippi 94% said Obama did not inspire them, 89% said they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee and 86% said that Obama was not trustworthy.   The same numbers for Senator Clinton are 61%, 41% and 72% respectively.

It appears that Republicans who are voting for Clinton are not doing so just because Rush Limbaugh tells them too.  They are doing so because they have a genuine dislike of Senator Obama that outweighs their dislike for Senator Clinton.  It would be interesting to see the numbers for those Republicans who voted for Senator Obama, to see if they voted because they like him, or because they dislike Senator Clinton more.  This would give us a better indication of whether or not Senator Obama can pull any Republican voters away during the general election.

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