Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Superdelegate Roundup Update - Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont

I've plugged in the complete results from the March 4th primaries, plus the latest updates from Democratic Convention Watch.  The numbers now stand as follows:

Clinton Area Superdeleages:  263
Clinton Affirmers:  125 (47.5%)
Clinton Defectors:  46 (17.5%)
Clinton Undeciders:  92 (35%)

Obama Area Superdelegates:  321
Obama Affirmers:  123 (38.3%)
Obama Defectors:  82 (25.6%)
Obama Undeciders:  116 (36.1%)

Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates:  136
Early Clinton Committers:  34 (25%)
Early Obama Committers:  26 (19.1%)
Early Undeciders:  76 (55.9%)

The only percentage that has seen a drastic change from a week ago is Obama's affirmer percentage, which has increased 4.7%.  This reflects both Senator Obama's good week in recruiting superdelegates from areas he'd already won (like Georgia and Alabama) as well as his victory in Vermont, where most of the superdelegates had already decided to support him.  Senator Clinton's affirmer percentage went down 2.5%, mostly because many superdelegates in Texas and Ohio, which she won, have not yet decided who to support.  I expect her affirmer percentage to bounce back once superdelegates from these states contemplate her victories.

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