Monday, May 12, 2008

Superdelegate Roundup Update - Obama Takes the Lead

Over the past week, the trickle of superdelegates toward Senator Obama has turned into a stream.  According to Democratic Convention Watch, Obama has netted 25 superdelegates since last week's North Carolina primary, compared to a net of 1 for Senator Clinton.  By their count, he now has 279 superdelegates to her 270.5.  Obama has also taken the lead in the "defector" category of the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet.  Obama has convinced 24.5 of superdelegates from Senator Clinton's areas to support him, while she is only covincing 23.6% of superdelegates from his areas to support her.  Obama can thank 4 California superdelegates who announced their endorsements this week for the boost to Clinton's defector percentage.  It is interesting to note that more superdelegates have now defected from areas where Senator Clinton won the vote than remain undecided.  

Finally, Senator Obama has taken the lead in endorsements from superdelegates whose areas have not yet voted (18 vs 15), although this is now the smallest piece of the pie with only 61 superdelegates.  We'll see how the trends go for the next couple of weeks, though I doubt there will be a major shift until this Kentucky/Oregon primaries on May 20th.  

The total numbers now stand as follows:

Clinton area superdelegates:  318
Clinton Affirmers:  168 (52.8%)
Clinton Defectors:  78 (24.5%)
Clinton Undeciders:  72 (22.6%)

Obama area superdelegates:  370
Obama Affirmers:  183 (49.5%)
Obama Defectors:  87.5 (23.6%)
Obama Undeciders:  99.5 (26.9%)

Pre-Vote area superdelegates:  61
Early Clinton Commiters:  15 (24.6%)
Early Obama Commiters:  18 (29.5%)
Early Undeciders:  28 (45.9%)

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