Thursday, May 8, 2008

Superdelegate Roundup Update

It's been awhile since I posted an update on the superdelegate roundup spreadsheet, although I have been making updates to it regularly.  Senator Clinton still leads in all superdelegate categories, although the size of her leads has declined sharply.  The numbers now stand at:


Clinton area superdelegates:  309
Clinton affirmers:  163 (52.8%)
Clinton defectors:  69 (22.3%)
Clinton undeciders:  77 (24.9%)

Obama area superdelegates:  369
Obama affirmers:  171 (46.3%)
Obama defectors:  87.5 (23.7%)
Obama undeciders:  110.5 (29.9%)

Pre-Vote area superdelegates:  67
Early Clinton committers:  20 (29.9%)
Early Obama committers:  18 (26.9%)
Early Undeciders:  29 (43.3%)

Senator Clinton is still retaining a greater percentage of superdelegates from areas which voted for her (52.8% vs 46.3%), as well as getting a greater percentage of superdelegates from areas which voted for Senator Obama to defect to her (23.7% vs 22.3%).  

This advantage may not last long, however.  Since the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Senator Obama has received commitments from 6 superdelegates, compared to only 1 for Senator Clinton.  One of Senator Obama's new supporters, Jennifer McClellan from Virginia, is a former Clinton supporter, meaning Senator Clinton has netted zero superdelegates since the last round of primaries.  We'll see if this trend continues into next week.

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