Thursday, February 14, 2008

More Superdelegate Roundup Updates

Some more pledge data has come in from Democratic Convention Watch and has been added to the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet. Numbers from Senator Obama's areas are steady, but some superdelegates from Senator Clinton's strongholds are committing, and both her affirmer and defector numbers are up. Superdelegtes from the pre-vote areas are also committing, and there Senator Obama saw an increase of 1.9%, vs only .6% for Senator Clinton.

Clinton Area Superdelegates: 199
Clinton Affirmers: 99 (49.7% - a 1.5% increase from yesterday morning)
Clinton Defectors: 29 (14.5% - a 1.4% increase from yesterday morning)
Clinton Undeciders: 71 (35.7% - a 3% drop from yesterday morning)

Obama Area Superdelegates: 278
Obama Affirmers: 85 (30.6%)
Obama Defectors: 76 (27.3%)
Obama Undeciders: 117 (42.1%)

Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 243
Early Clinton Committers: 57 (23.4% - a .6% increase from yesterday morning)
Early Obama Committers: 36 (14.8% - a 1.9% percent increase from yesterday morning)
Early Undeciders: 150 (61.7% - a 2.6% drop from yesterday morning)


Marisa said...

It's surprising that uncommitted superdelegates are committing. I would think anyone not currently committed would take a wait and see approach. It looks like the candidate's efforts to convince them are working.

Matt C said...

It is interesting, I have 2 theories which are both probably wrong:

If you're a superdelegate in an area where the candidate you prefer is not expected to win, you may make your pledge before the vote to give yourself a plausible excuse for not going along with the vote.
examples of this could be Gov. Anibal Acevedo Vila from Puerto Rico who pledged for Obama yesterday and Richard Port from Hawaii who pledged for Clinton.

If the vote outcome in your are is not certain, you may want to make your pledge early in hopes of swaying the vote in your favor. This wouldn't seem to explain the DNC members pledging, however, as I don't think their endorsements carry much weight with the voters.

Another interesting thing to note is that these pledges are not necessarily final. Today Christine "Roz" Samuels from New Jersey pledged for Obama. Last week, she went from Clinton pledge to uncommitted, so she has gone from being an affirmer to a defector. There must have been a good deal of convincing going on there.