Sunday, February 17, 2008

Superdelegate Roundup Update, Pre-Vote Areas Committing

I've put the latest superdelegate pledge updates from Democratic Convention Watch into the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet.  Both the Clinton and Obama area numbers held steady, but the pre-vote areas saw another 4.2% of their superdelegates commit to a candidate (2.5% for Clinton, 1.6% for Obama).  To see how the week went, I've compared each percentage from those in Monday's (2/11) update.  

Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208
Clinton Affirmers: 104 (50%) (vs 48.5% on 2/11)
Clinton Defectors: 32 (15.4%) (vs 12.1% on 2/11)
Clinton Undeciders: 72 (34.6%) (vs 39.4% on 2/11)

Obama Area Superdelegates: 279
Obama Affirmers: 89 (31.9%) (vs 33% on 2/11)
Obama Defectors: 74 (26.5%) (vs 22.9% on 2/11)
Obama Undeciders: 116 (41.6%) (vs 44% on 2/11)

Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 235
Early Clinton Commiters: 59 (25.1%) (vs 25.4% on 2/11)
Early Obama Commiters: 40 (17%) (vs 13.2% on 2/11)
Early Undeciders: 136 (57.9%) (vs 61.4% on 2/11)

For the entire week, Senator Obama had a net increase of 25 superdelegates, compared to only 14 for Senator Clinton.  Interestingly, defector rates for both candidates are up, and Obama's affirmer percentage actually went down.  It seems that Senator Obama will have to work harder to convince superdelegates from areas that voted for him to affirm the will of the voters if he is going to close the superdelegate gap with Senator Clinton.

* Another note, some superdelegates are having trouble sticking with their commitments.  After reports got out that he had switched his pledge from Clinton to Obama, Rep. John Lewis's office denied the reports.  Democratic Convention Watch has moved him back into the uncommitted column until they can firmly determine his pledge.  DNC member Sarah Swisher from Iowa switched her support to Obama after he received the endorsement of her union, the SEIU.  Swisher had originally supported Senator Edwards, so she has now supported all three candidates.

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